Is 2013 the New 1913?

[Noblesse Oblige]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/04/why_2013_looks_a_lot_like_1913

The leading power of the age is in relative decline, beset by political crisis at home and by steadily eroding economic prowess. Rising powers are jostling for position in the four corners of the world, some seeking a new place for themselves within the current global order, others questioning its very legitimacy. Democracy and despotism are locked in uneasy competition. A world economy is interconnected as never before by flows of money, trade, and people, and by the unprecedented spread of new, distance-destroying technologies. A global society, perhaps even a global moral consciousness, is emerging as a result. Small-town America rails at the excessive power of Wall Street. Asia is rising once again. And, yes, there's trouble in the Middle East.

Sound familiar?


In many ways, the world of 1913, the last year before the Great War, seems not so much the world of 100 years ago as the world of today, curiously refracted through time. It is impossible to look at it without an uncanny feeling of recognition, telescoping a century into the blink of an eye. But can peering back into the world of our great-grandparents really help us understand the world we live in today?


Let's get the caveats out of the way upfront. History does not repeat itself -- at least not exactly. Analogies from one period to another are never perfect. However tempting it may be to view China in 2013 as an exact parallel to Germany in 1913 (the disruptive rising power of its age) or to view the contemporary United States as going through the exact same experience as Britain a century ago (a "weary titan staggering under the too vast orb of its fate," as Joseph Chamberlain put it), things are never quite that straightforward. Whereas Germany in 1913 explicitly sought a foreign empire, China in 2013 publicly eschews the idea that it is an expansionist power (though it is perfectly clear about protecting its interests around the world). Whereas the German empire in 1913 had barely 40 years of history as a unified state behind it and was only slightly more populous that Britain or France, China in 2013 can look back on centuries of continuous history as a player in world affairs, and it now boasts one-fifth of the world's population. Whereas Germany's rise was a genuinely new geopolitical phenomenon in 1913, the rise of China today is more of a return to historical normality. These differences matter.


Similarly, the strengths and weaknesses of the United States in 2013 are not quite the same as those of Britain 100 years ago. Then, Britain benefited politically from being the world's banker and from being the linchpin of the gold standard. Today the United States, though benefiting politically and economically from being the issuer of the world's principal reserve currency, is hardly in the same position: The country is laden with debt. (One can argue about whether it should really be such a big issue that so much of that debt is owned by Chinese state entities -- after all, Beijing can't just dump Treasury bonds if it doesn't get what it wants from Washington. But Chinese ownership of U.S. debt feeds a perception of American decline, and perceptions of the relative powers of states matter a lot to how other countries treat them.) There are other differences between Britain in 1913 and the United States in 2013. Britain was never a military superpower on the order of the United States today. There was never a unipolar British moment. Britain in 1913 had slipped behind Germany industrially decades before, living more and more off the proceeds of the past; the United States in 2013 is still the world's largest economy and in many respects the most dynamic and most innovative.

With the analogies being much similar, do you think that this year may be similar in many ways to 1913? Do you potentially see a WWIII scenario occurring in the foreseeable future?

 

[Paddy McGee]

I like that hypothesis. I mean, it does seem like history repeating itself- but in another sense.

I mean, Germany are rising themselves, due to their place as the de facto head of the EU- imo.

But, the more interesting matter of the comparisons between the US and Commonwealth of 1913 are somewhat weak to me. I see the US as a stronger and much wiser country. I think you'd also have to take other matters into consideration: Britain was dealing with uprising colonies at the time(I remember Ireland being a prominent one, due to us being Britain next-door Neighbour ).

I do think China have the militaristic aims to start a war, personally. But, I don't think WWIII will happen because of them. I think it will be an economic world. Give it 50 or so years, and I actually believe that the superpowers of the day will be the likes of Brazil, India, China, and the EU will fall apart.

 

[Donald Trump]

No. The causes of WW1 are not present today.
The most important being a system of alliances which turned a regional war into a European one. The other being colonies, Britain's in particular. And of course we all know the only reason Britain entered the war was because of a scrap of paper.
Also it's interesting that China has been seen as the aggressive, expansionist, bellicose country. One Superpower has been responsible for two wars and over 100,000 civilian deaths since 2000. That country is not China.

 

[Ohri-Jin]

USA is scared. USA is meddling too much with middle east and Asia. Superpowers in the future will be Turkey, Russia, China. Iran and North Korea are minor threats hopefully, but China on its own wont start a global war. For what? USA and Israel are allies. If there will be a ww3 it might be because Israel is overdoing it in Palastina and provoking Turkey. Turkey is on the rise to become a superpower in the future. Their ambition to have all economic trading, currency etc. of asia having turkey as the centerplace.

Now I have no interest in history in general. I have no interest in politics. Its a vile community. I have spoken to many people and everytime its the same conclusion. Its about money aka black gold and gas. If asia unites in this aspect the West will not like it. Fossil fuels might be scarce and depleted by 2050-2060 so they say. There might be a shit storm coming but not by China alone but by several asian alliances in he future.